Hi, just thought I'd post how I've been getting on recently. The last 20-30K hands I've been pretty much breakeven. I'll try and explain why I think this is...
For the first 50K hands I'd been playing a very nitty style, only VP$IP with hands that rated to be better than villain's range. To this effect I was only 3-betting or folding (a strong range) to a previous raise and open raising a distribution that rated to be best based on the number of players left to act. It ended up having me playing around 11% of pots and had me winning at a rate of around 1.5 BB/100. But around the end of last month I decided to loosen up a little and have been playing all the pocket pairs from every position at the table in a basic fit or fold style. This strategy has earned me money overall, but my win rate with the pockets has actually fallen from it's previous level. Now the sample is pretty small but I've actually been losing money by playing every PP from UTG and UTG+1. This has contributed extra money to my redline losses which is now cancelling out my profit from showdown winnings. Because the sample is still small, I'll continue to play these hands but I'm aware of the potential leak and so I can eradicate it should these hands continue to be a drain on my win rate. Of course I could adapt my strategy so that I'm playing less of a hit or miss style, but the problem with doing this is we'll often be pure bluffing a crap hand without position. We're also usually in a multiway pot. I'll keep you posted.
Another thing I've been doing is playing more suited aces. These have been faring better but probably due to three factors:
1/ Card removal (less chance villains have big hands)
2/ Implied Odds versus Sets, Weaker Flushes and Straights - players hate to fold them!
3/ I've had good variance with these hands so far
Again, I think I'll continue to play them for now but I think this could be another potential leak and I'm ready to remove them from my EP strategy if this is proven.
ON the plus side, I've been much better with the blinds recently and now my total BB and SB losses are about 0.3 BB per hand which I'm perfectly happy with (at least for now). My goal is to now try and increase my winnings in the later positions and this will be where my profit comes from.
One way I plan to do this is to begin to include a range of hands (suited connectors?) that I flat IP preflop and then raise c-bets on good flops as a bluff. It doesn't have to work very often to be profitable and I think it will work with a very high frequency versus the tons of microstakes one trick ponies. I must be careful when deciding to double/triple barrel but the reraise on it's own should show a good profit against most players at this limit. I think that's everything... Rush is allowing me to pick apart my game like never before. I love studying my stats... What a sad little fuck I am! ;) GL