Hello all, welcome to my online poker blog.

I've been playing on and off for a decade after being introduced by a friend.

I played regularly for a few years during the poker boom and had a decent record at the micros, particularly Rush and Zoom No Limit Hold'em games (here's one of my graphs).

Around 2012 I began a new career which involved immersing myself completely in study in my spare time, so I had little to no time for poker. However recently this burden has eased and so I have been gradually dipping back in.

I'm an amateur player who still hopes to some day beat the rake.

Friday, 14 May 2010

Thinking a little more clearly

It's easy in the heat of the moment after a great session to proclaim that the world's problems have been solved and we'll all live happily ever after. I beat 10k hands for 5 BB/100 which is an excellent result for me and my bankroll looks much healthier for it. However, I think that I should temper my excitement until I've got through a much bigger sample - probably 100k hands which I'll likely achieve in a month if I play as much as I can. I ran the mathematics and while it's now 93% likely that my strategy is a winning one, there are still negative win rates within my desired 99% confidence interval. The plus points are that I've won money from the redline over the 10000 hands which I'm thrilled to bits with. This money has come from playing tighter in general and playing a more robust preflop strategy. My post flop play has been pretty good - confidence helps here. So I'm very happy with the way it has gone but I'll not make any wild claims until I've got through more hands. The brilliant thing about Rush poker is the volume we can get through. I did 10k hands over two days so if I put my mind to it I could probably play 100k hands per month. This should almost always result in a profitable month if I can indeed find a robust winning strategy.
When to move up?
Well I'd be hurting my winnings if I verified that my strategy was profitable but if I stayed at 10NL. So if I can (99%) guarantee myself using statistics that I'm beating 10NL then providing I can win enough to bankroll myself for the higher limit I'll move up to 25NL. I'll iterate this process until such time that the statistics tell me that I'm hurting my win rates at a certain limit. In other words I need to find the profit saturation point (I made that up if it doesn't make sense, lol). Let me explain, as we rise in limits the number of good players rises exponentially. At some given stake, it is probably true that given your ability your hourly win rate at one limit will be approximately equal to that at the limit below it. At this point it would no longer make sense to play any higher than the limit below the point that you've discovered that this is true. So I'll keep going until I can find this point. It may be 10NL; it may be 50NL or higher but whatever happens it will all be posted here. Wish me luck :)
A little bit about my style
I am using a tight aggressive style for these games. My preflop stats would look extremely nitty to anyone with a hud, I'm playing about 12% of hands on average. Post flop though, I'm playing very aggressively both with or without a made hand. Because my range is in general pretty strong there's not much my opponents can do about it. Anyway, GL.
PS I haven't given up on HUSNG, I have unfinished business in HU poker but right now it makes more sense to volume slog Rush.


  1. Agreed , so am I . are you gettin' rakeback because mine has gone thru the roof. regards, adam

  2. yeah standard 27%. It's coming back at around $2.7 per 1000 hands at the moment. Plus it's so easy to earn FTPs now isn't it? I'm going to try for Iron Man next month. You back in the games then? Simon

  3. yes , i certainly am . have got a bee in my bonnet about super turbo HUSNG too . played a 150 game match against a guy who played any 2 cards to a set raise-check , check-raise srategy all the way to showdown . i just couldnt beat him which sent me into a terrible rage. luckily he quit or i wud still b going now . it was unreal.

  4. I found HUSNG to be more tilting than the cash I was used to; it's frustrating when you can see someone making clear mistakes throughout your match but end up losing anyway. Anyway, good to hear from you. Hope the cards are falling your way