OK I just played a hand and was made to look a little foolish and thought that I'd do some analysis on 40 bb stacks in Rush poker. The villain was raising 60% hands from the steal positions and folding 95% of the time to 3-bets over several hundred hands. This is a very leaky strategy IMO. Here's the hand:
This made me look like a fool but I'm sure my play is OK and I decided to check it using pokerazor. Firstly the top 30% of hands has better than even equity versus a 60% range, so ATo is easily good enough to 3-bet, it's whether we are risking too much by betting all-in with 40bb effective stacks. OK the results are just as I expected, this is a profitable shove with any two cards given that the initial assumptions on his ranges are correct. Therefore ATo is a clear shove here. I tested an alternative strategy where we 3-bet to a dollar and fold to a four bet shove. I made his range for this the same as his shove calling range. This strategy showed an increase in expectation. On the flip side we could then open ourselves up to a four-bet bluff shove strategy which would likely negate this extra edge. Don't underestimate the importance of the first - in vigourish.
My opponent is a regular in these games so I will test both strategies over the next few thousand hands and see if I can exploit enough to turn a profit.
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