So played a few more thousand hands this week and it looks like the heater has ended now. I haven't gone on some tough down-swing (at least not yet anyway), but things have got decidedly less juicy of late. Still, that's how the game is and after all of the bad variance I've encountered before I know that my only friend is volume.
Having adopted a looser strategy, it seems to me that I've sacrificed some showdown equity. Over my entire sample I have won less money on average at showdown than I did in my previous databases where I played a tighter style. On the flip side I have lost less money without going to showdown. So essentially I'm bluffing at more blind money and coming out better off but losing a little more at showdown because my ranges are weaker on average.
The important thing is that I try and keep the gap between the two positive. I'm really trying hard to play as accurately as possible based upon equity and villain's tendencies and over the most recent couple of thousand hands I'm very happy. I managed to avoid tilt and made just a few small mistakes.
A small worry is that I'm going to showdown quite often again, nearly 30% of the time. I don't feel that I'm hero calling too much, but I think a large reason for this is that I'm often checking back flops for pot control which is a style that tends to lead to more showdowns. Also playing against very loose passive players can have this result too. I'll keep a careful eye on this as it could potentially contribute to low showdown winnings.
I am away this weekend and will play my last couple of sessions tomorrow. Then it will likely be Tuesday before I get to play again unfortunately.