Hello all, welcome to my online poker blog.

I've been playing on and off for a decade after being introduced by a friend.

I played regularly for a few years during the poker boom and had a decent record at the micros, particularly Rush and Zoom No Limit Hold'em games (here's one of my graphs).

Around 2012 I began a new career which involved immersing myself completely in study in my spare time, so I had little to no time for poker. However recently this burden has eased and so I have been gradually dipping back in.

I'm an amateur player who still hopes to some day beat the rake.

Friday, 24 June 2011

A Little More on Planning (from last post)

So it's one thing to say "yeah we'll check raise and barrel on these 20 cards on the turn" - but if we hardly ever get the sorts of flops where this is possible then we'll still be just check folding most of the time after the flop. So I just powered up pokerazor to Monte Carlo some flops for KJs and this is what I found:

1 KJs flops good straight OR flush draws around 14% in total
2 KJs flops the above plus {a back door flush draw AND overcards} 30% of the time in total
3 KJs flops the above plus {a gutshot AND overcards} 31.75% of the time
4 KJs flops the above plus {a back door flush draw AND gutshot} 35.65% of the time

Now this doesn't tell us anything about the flop texture but we'll have top pair or better a further 25% of the time meaning we can check raise about 60% of flops. This seems like quite a lot and is obviously bluff biased. But, if we barrel nearly half of our bluffs on the turn then this would be around 40% - 45% of the time and then on the river about 30% - 35%. I don't know what the exact numbers would be to be optimally balanced here with this line, but it seems to me that we're using the principle of letting some bluffs drop out on each street and ending up with a balanced river value/bluff range.

Of course this strategy could also be utilised for flop c-betting. Use this information how you will, I just think that using a combination of major draws plus added together minor draws gives us a pretty decent flop bluffing range with a hand like KJs and is likely the reason many good players use a similar approach. GL

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