Just a short post really, I think I'm coming to understand the delicacy in NLHE win rates. For a good while I have been a break even player. I've discussed some of the reasons previously; my poor win rate from the button and big blind are good examples.
But if we look at the macro picture, I believe that the overall game conditions have changed and I haven't adjusted.
As far as I see it, poker profit is the difference between money won at showdown and money won without showdown. Micro stakes games are usually beaten by making money from showing down with the best hand. However, if a player does not control his non showdown winnings sufficiently then each will cancel each other out. I think that just lately the Rush games have got a little nittier, and so there hasn't quite been as much showdown money to be made. To compensate, I should have upped my aggression a good while back to ensure that I maintained an edge. I didn't do that and so I reached a situation where my showdown winnings were cancelled out by no showdown losses. I think that I have now made the correct adjustment: my red line (no showdown losses) is now shallower than before and I feel that I have rediscovered a small edge in the games.
I think it's so important to game select if you truly want to remain profitable. Of course that's not possible in Rush poker, and if I ever felt that the edge had dried up I'd go back to normal games. But if you're ever in a game where you don't feel that you can create a clear edge between your showdown winnings and no showdown winnings then you're just gifting money to the poker site.