Another horrible session, where I lost a large pot to a one - outer; four-bet against a fish with KK and after he called, I check called the psb on Axx and he's binked the ace (check folding too weak there??).
I've noticed a trend in my play - since this bad stretch began I have been slowly going to showdown a little more and more (nearly 28% of the time now). I think the problem is that I'm attempting to bluff catch too often. Sometimes I'm right, but more often than not I'm wrong. This in itself isn't a mathematical mistake since we need to be right on average around 30% of the time or more to make calling correct - but I think I'm actually catching a bluff on the river a lot less than 30% of the time. I think I'm beginning to understand why. Well, at these stakes I think that villains don't value bet or bluff thinly enough which leads to them having a stronger than average range when they river bet. I also think that I'm often forgetting that many of the ranges I'm facing literally do not have enough junk in them by the river for them to be bluffing with! Optimal play would require them to be turning hands into bluffs that players at this limit just never do. They'll check back their third pair; they'll check back king high on double paired boards; they'll never fire a third barrel when their flush draw missed. I believe that this bluff catching leak is singularly the biggest drain on my win rate currently. I think that ideally I would be seeing showdown around 25% of the time. In order to begin to get down to that number I'm going to have to begin to play more weakly. I have already begun to c-bet less often. I only need to think twice before calling river bets now and I will hopefully see an improvement.
I'm nearly at 100k hands in my latest database and I'm more or less break - even (a small winner through rake back). I'll start a new one when I get there and really try and focus on this leak for the next 100k hands or so, I really wouldn't care if I started going to showdown as little as 20% of the time. Wish me luck!