Just messed up big time. I 3-b an UTG raiser with 130bb stack and I have AA. Semi loose passive villain calls and flop runs TT6 with two hearts. I c-bet and he raises. His aggression factor over a decent sample is 2. Which means that he bluffs sometimes, but more often than not he's got a hand when he bets or raises. The fact that he's semi loose means that 66, TT and probably T9s/JTs are in his range, but at the time I just spazzed out and stuck it in expecting flush draws and KK to be there too (which would actually make this fine - if that were true). But his aggression factor is 2! So Kings would have called more than likely, and probably flush draws too. His raise was for value against my face up hand. Even if he does sometimes bluff raise there, calling makes much more sense because there's more than a pot sized bet left. Even then though, folding is probably best despite the fact that there are only a few big hand combinations in his range. I think at the time I just tilt shoved, and that is just horrible poker.
And then I called him a nasty name in chat, to make me feel even worse - there's no need for that. I'm sure we all feel like it sometimes, but he wasn't responsible for FT dealing that hand, the random gen software was.
Unless I can begin to make logical decisions again and until I can keep it together and the emotion under control; until I can learn to live with the rough end of poker variance; unless I can return to the calm calculating poker player that earned money last year I'll be stuck at this limit.
I'm now back to the bankroll that I began 25NL with. 200k hands of work and even with rake back I have nothing to show for it. It has all become very stagnant, but at least my bankroll is still intact. All I need to do is work out how to win again.
It's time to start again. I will play another 1-2k hands tonight now I've vented a little and then close this database. I will provide a summary blog post of the last two hundred thousand hands with some stats and goals and then take a deep breath and start this limit again. I'll take down the graph pictures for now as they just remind me how badly it's going. And then it's time to learn how to play poker again. Let's go back to the start. GL
EDIT: The last session didn't go too grossly thankfully. I'm going to start my renaissance with post flop aggression factor and aggression frequency. I've become reasonably good at estimating regular villain ranges by looking at vp$ip and pfr (for those who don't understand that's how many hands someone plays and how aggressive they play them). But post flop I've merely been looking at board texture compared to that assigned range and basing my play upon those factors but I've been ignoring the aggression factor. If a tight player raises me on a dry board knowing how to interpret aggression factors properly will allow me to make a much better decision with my over-pair etc. So not only am I going to post my 200k analysis, but also a short article about how I might begin to interpret an opponent's aggression post flop. I'm certain that becoming good at this will allow me to return to winning ways, because recently I've just played a default line based upon how often a player has a hand on a certain board texture. But the equation must have aggression frequencies included. GL
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