Welcome

Hello all, welcome to my online poker blog.

I've been playing on and off for a decade after being introduced by a friend.

I played regularly for a few years during the poker boom and had a decent record at the micros, particularly Rush and Zoom No Limit Hold'em games (here's one of my graphs).

Around 2012 I began a new career which involved immersing myself completely in study in my spare time, so I had little to no time for poker. However recently this burden has eased and so I have been gradually dipping back in.

I'm an amateur player who still hopes to some day beat the rake.





Thursday, 16 July 2009

SitNGo Wizard and mistakes in the DoNs

Hi, more double or nothing (DoN) tournaments today. Didn't do great but watching the mistakes many of the opponents are making I feel that I can at least break even - we will see. I am analysing the games in a piece of software called SitNGo Wizard which uses an equity model called the independent chip model (ICM). It is unethical to use it during the games - so I don't - but good for post game analysis. I can look for mistakes I have made and try to improve. I seem to be averaging 2 - 3 mistakes per game currently which is too high. If I can bring this down then I should start seeing profits increase. The biggest mistake I seem to be making at the moment is over - rating AK. To be fair it's never a huge favourite over any hand and you need to have a bigger edge in these games before getting the money in.
I am also going to try and qualify for one of the upcoming WCOOP tournaments on pokerstars. They have some serious prize money with a ton of satellite qualifiers so will give it a go.
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3 comments:

  1. Dan Askew16 July 2009 at 13:18

    You should definately use SnG wizard whilst playing......everyone knows your up against robots. :P

    How many DoN before you get a good example size? Does ICM not like AK then as I was playing it like aces.......lol

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  2. Simon Debanks18 July 2009 at 11:05

    Have been searching the two plus two forums for a good sample size unsuccesfully as yet, I think 500 would give you a reasonable idea within a few percent. On the question of AK, it's just not a big enough favourite against common hand ranges:
    Against {99+,AQs+,AKo}, AK only has 43% equity.
    Against {22+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+}, AK is about evens.
    It can be shown that you need to be about an 80% favourite on the bubble of a DoN so you'd need significant fold equity to make shoving correct and calling is completely out of the question in this case. The range calculations were done using pokerstove (www.pokerstove.com)

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