Hi, more double or nothing (DoN) tournaments today. Didn't do great but watching the mistakes many of the opponents are making I feel that I can at least break even - we will see. I am analysing the games in a piece of software called SitNGo Wizard which uses an equity model called the independent chip model (ICM). It is unethical to use it during the games - so I don't - but good for post game analysis. I can look for mistakes I have made and try to improve. I seem to be averaging 2 - 3 mistakes per game currently which is too high. If I can bring this down then I should start seeing profits increase. The biggest mistake I seem to be making at the moment is over - rating AK. To be fair it's never a huge favourite over any hand and you need to have a bigger edge in these games before getting the money in.
I am also going to try and qualify for one of the upcoming WCOOP tournaments on pokerstars. They have some serious prize money with a ton of satellite qualifiers so will give it a go.
You should definately use SnG wizard whilst playing......everyone knows your up against robots. :P
ReplyDeleteHow many DoN before you get a good example size? Does ICM not like AK then as I was playing it like aces.......lol
Have been searching the two plus two forums for a good sample size unsuccesfully as yet, I think 500 would give you a reasonable idea within a few percent. On the question of AK, it's just not a big enough favourite against common hand ranges:
ReplyDeleteAgainst {99+,AQs+,AKo}, AK only has 43% equity.
Against {22+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+}, AK is about evens.
It can be shown that you need to be about an 80% favourite on the bubble of a DoN so you'd need significant fold equity to make shoving correct and calling is completely out of the question in this case. The range calculations were done using pokerstove (www.pokerstove.com)
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