OK, so just got out of a session and it was defined by one large pot.
My thinking for a typical opponent on the 4h6hKcJcKs river with trips is that most players would just shove their very best hands out of position here as they'd be afraid that I'd check back for showdown and therefore lose value where I'd also call a river bet. So I weighted his calling hands towards vulnerable trips types like KQ - which most villains at 25NL would probably call my river shove with.
So it was a thin value play which didn't go my way. I put a couple of ranges into Stove and it seems that there was value here if villain is calling with KQ, especially if I'm right and the river check was an unusual way for someone to play such a strong hand. It's just a shame it didn't go my way - but that's thin value bets for you. You lose the pots nearly half of the time.
So are there any better players out there who would have given different ranges here? Has play improved so much that regulars are snap folding KQ in this spot? Would love some input.
By the way, to justify my pre-flop call, it was just a stack size thing. I didn't want to get all-in with large effective stacks so decided to play a pot in position with a hand which probably dominates much of his 3-betting range.
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