Apologies for no updates for a while, I've actually been playing quite a bit but just not got around to posting. I'm trying to clear the WCOOP bonus at the mo so I doubt I'll post much for a bit as I'll be busy playing but I thought I'd post an interesting hand. I actually time out folded on the river so unfortunately we'll never know what villain had.
http://www.holdemmanager.net
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer Game#85795121236
mag2012P$ ($33.57)
Genius4832 ($27.53)
Recazy ($26.25)
Stolarr ($25)
BOGEC73 ($35.16)
BankoBet ($47.98)
Mr.KALABS ($38.07)
Szwejoslaw ($25)
Dzhigurda ($32.64)
mag2012P$ posts (SB) $0.10
Genius4832 posts (BB) $0.25
Dealt to BankoBet Qh Th
fold, fold,
BOGEC73 calls $0.25
BankoBet raises to $1
Mr.KALABS calls $1
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold,
FLOP ($2.60) Js Kc As
BankoBet bets $1.75
Mr.KALABS calls $1.75
TURN ($6.10) Js Kc As Qs
BankoBet bets $4
Mr.KALABS raises to $8.25
Villain's stats are 14/12/5. When he raised it really suprised me because I can't think of any hands that would do this... think about it. Villains with stats like those will not often call with much other than pairs and good broadways pre-flop. I think raising JJ here is too thin; I think he has to have a flush or maybe a straight (if he's not full of shit). But what flush hand calls in MP? KTs gives him the royal flush.... Maybe some weird suited connector? TT with a spade?
If he'd been a bigger fish I'd have called down but I just got the impression from his bet timing that he was really serious about his hand. I soooo wanted to call on the river, just because I couldn't think of hardly any hands that would play it this way.
BankoBet calls $4.25
RIVER ($22.60) Js Kc As Qs 9c
BankoBet checks
Mr.KALABS bets $14.25
BankoBet folds
Mr.KALABS wins $21.58
Meh we'll never know. If his stats suddenly converge on 57/37 I'll be kicking myself.
Good Fold
ReplyDeleteI think JTs makes the most sense
Good chance of a preflop call with that hand
Hes either made the straight or the flush on the turn for sure (assuming it's not a random bluff)
He raises turn to protect his straight or get value from his flush. Not sure that I'd make that turn call without first knowing I'm pretty much calling any none spade river.
If he really had it, the best you could of got was a chop I think...
hmmm, I definitely agree that JTs is possible and would make sense. I think it's a pretty thin flop call, but yeah it could be. I still think he had the stone colds with KsTs, mad though it may sound!
ReplyDeleteYou're probably right about the turn. If my read had been more reliable then I think I would have folded. The problem I had at the time was that I didn't have enough hands to trust the HUD. So given my great turn odds I decided to call expecting the river to be checked back some of the time and also my hand to be best some of the time. If I had a few more hundred hands then I could have made the fold mroe easily I think.
On the river I had some additional bet timing considerations that led me to consider folding rather than just calling down (which had been my plan). I don't know if it's the correct approach but I tend to think of decisions like these on a street by street basis. Planning is great, but I also think that there is a danger of ignoring information if this approach is used too rigidly.
Anyway, thanks for your thoughts :) Blog link?!
Simon