Aggression Factor is defined as (% bet + % raise)/% call. This statistic can be a useful measure of how aggressive a player is. However, it can be misleading as it does not account for any other actions (checking or folding).
Consider a player who is tight and aggressive and who bets or raises on the flop an average of 2 in 5 hands and calls with 1 in 5 for an aggression factor of 2 - a common value.
Now consider a much looser player who bets or raises on average 2 in 10 hands and calls with 1 in 10 - pretty unrealistic but you get the point. He would have an identical aggression factor, but his continuing range for the flop is just as strong as the tight aggressive. A consistent mistake that I've made lately is to have no respect for a loose player with high aggression factor. Even though they might only be continuing post flop with a super strong range!
Aggression Frequency is defined as (bet + raise)/(streets) and as such includes all actions. It basically describes how often (when faced with a decision) a player chooses to take the aggressive action. Going back to the previous example, the tag would now have an aggression frequency of 40% for his flop play and the loose player would have 20%. This new number now indicates that he is folding most of the time on the flop.
Returning to the hand I described last post, while my opponent's aggression factor was 2.1, his aggression frequency was 33%. This is very passive, and I think I should have either called and made a decision on the turn or folded.
Basically I intend to alter my HUD so that it only shows aggression frequency in future and hopefully this will allow my flop decision making when facing aggression to be better.
The next time I play, I will begin the new database. I intend to do a lot of hand reviews concentrating on looking at aggression frequency and hand ranges on the flop so that I can begin to hand read better in this critical situation.
Finally, it may be a couple of days before I play again. I think I need a little break from poker - not for too long - and I'm currently enjoying The Witcher 2. GL
Sunday, 29 May 2011
Friday, 27 May 2011
Bad Mistake, 25NL Forever?
Just messed up big time. I 3-b an UTG raiser with 130bb stack and I have AA. Semi loose passive villain calls and flop runs TT6 with two hearts. I c-bet and he raises. His aggression factor over a decent sample is 2. Which means that he bluffs sometimes, but more often than not he's got a hand when he bets or raises. The fact that he's semi loose means that 66, TT and probably T9s/JTs are in his range, but at the time I just spazzed out and stuck it in expecting flush draws and KK to be there too (which would actually make this fine - if that were true). But his aggression factor is 2! So Kings would have called more than likely, and probably flush draws too. His raise was for value against my face up hand. Even if he does sometimes bluff raise there, calling makes much more sense because there's more than a pot sized bet left. Even then though, folding is probably best despite the fact that there are only a few big hand combinations in his range. I think at the time I just tilt shoved, and that is just horrible poker.
And then I called him a nasty name in chat, to make me feel even worse - there's no need for that. I'm sure we all feel like it sometimes, but he wasn't responsible for FT dealing that hand, the random gen software was.
Unless I can begin to make logical decisions again and until I can keep it together and the emotion under control; until I can learn to live with the rough end of poker variance; unless I can return to the calm calculating poker player that earned money last year I'll be stuck at this limit.
I'm now back to the bankroll that I began 25NL with. 200k hands of work and even with rake back I have nothing to show for it. It has all become very stagnant, but at least my bankroll is still intact. All I need to do is work out how to win again.
It's time to start again. I will play another 1-2k hands tonight now I've vented a little and then close this database. I will provide a summary blog post of the last two hundred thousand hands with some stats and goals and then take a deep breath and start this limit again. I'll take down the graph pictures for now as they just remind me how badly it's going. And then it's time to learn how to play poker again. Let's go back to the start. GL
EDIT: The last session didn't go too grossly thankfully. I'm going to start my renaissance with post flop aggression factor and aggression frequency. I've become reasonably good at estimating regular villain ranges by looking at vp$ip and pfr (for those who don't understand that's how many hands someone plays and how aggressive they play them). But post flop I've merely been looking at board texture compared to that assigned range and basing my play upon those factors but I've been ignoring the aggression factor. If a tight player raises me on a dry board knowing how to interpret aggression factors properly will allow me to make a much better decision with my over-pair etc. So not only am I going to post my 200k analysis, but also a short article about how I might begin to interpret an opponent's aggression post flop. I'm certain that becoming good at this will allow me to return to winning ways, because recently I've just played a default line based upon how often a player has a hand on a certain board texture. But the equation must have aggression frequencies included. GL
And then I called him a nasty name in chat, to make me feel even worse - there's no need for that. I'm sure we all feel like it sometimes, but he wasn't responsible for FT dealing that hand, the random gen software was.
Unless I can begin to make logical decisions again and until I can keep it together and the emotion under control; until I can learn to live with the rough end of poker variance; unless I can return to the calm calculating poker player that earned money last year I'll be stuck at this limit.
I'm now back to the bankroll that I began 25NL with. 200k hands of work and even with rake back I have nothing to show for it. It has all become very stagnant, but at least my bankroll is still intact. All I need to do is work out how to win again.
It's time to start again. I will play another 1-2k hands tonight now I've vented a little and then close this database. I will provide a summary blog post of the last two hundred thousand hands with some stats and goals and then take a deep breath and start this limit again. I'll take down the graph pictures for now as they just remind me how badly it's going. And then it's time to learn how to play poker again. Let's go back to the start. GL
EDIT: The last session didn't go too grossly thankfully. I'm going to start my renaissance with post flop aggression factor and aggression frequency. I've become reasonably good at estimating regular villain ranges by looking at vp$ip and pfr (for those who don't understand that's how many hands someone plays and how aggressive they play them). But post flop I've merely been looking at board texture compared to that assigned range and basing my play upon those factors but I've been ignoring the aggression factor. If a tight player raises me on a dry board knowing how to interpret aggression factors properly will allow me to make a much better decision with my over-pair etc. So not only am I going to post my 200k analysis, but also a short article about how I might begin to interpret an opponent's aggression post flop. I'm certain that becoming good at this will allow me to return to winning ways, because recently I've just played a default line based upon how often a player has a hand on a certain board texture. But the equation must have aggression frequencies included. GL
Thursday, 26 May 2011
Leak Fixing 101
At the bottom of this post I have included a video by poker player 'citizenwind' where he reviews a session in Hold'em manager. Alvin is a player who has beaten Rush poker comfortably at all limits up to 200NL over a significant sample, so it will do my game the world of good to compare statistics. My leaks probably lie within the biggest differences.
Conclusion: I am a gigantic CALLING STATION.
I think that I'm putting in too much money on average post flop. Alvin explains in the video that people generally have a value heavy range when they bet so we should generally be folding to bets more often than we probably should in an optimal game. My poker understanding has reached a level where I feel that I have to prevent myself from being exploited in all situations, but of course this is only necessary if we are being exploited in these situations. In the vast majority of cases, it's likely that I'm NOT being exploited, and therefore I should be folding more often. The key statistics where we differ are:
1/ Showdown : Alvin - 22%, Me - 27.5%.
Solution : Fold MORE
2/ C-bet % : Alvin - 60%, Me - 70%.
Solution : C-bet in the most obvious spots only
3/ Fold to Flop C-bet % : Alvin - 55%, Me - 40%
Solution : Bluff catch a little less on the flop, especially against more aggressive players. Let these players bluff off to you when your range is strong.
Basically, over the next few weeks I'm going to doing a lot of work like this to return my game to winning ways. I'll probably find it hard to kick some of the habits I've picked up but to reach the next level it's work that needs to be done.GL
EDIT: This game is fucking ridiculous. I'm now ten buy-ins under EV for the latest 100k hands and that takes my grand total up to around 25 for the last 200k. Enough to drive someone insane, it really is. $600 bucks that should be mine lost to the variance curve. I'm due, poker owes me. Back to Volume, my only friend. Maybe things will turn around for the next 100k? Or maybe poker is rigged after all. On the previous subject I was much better this session I think. I made one suspect call but looking on pokerstove it wasn't a huge mistake.
Conclusion: I am a gigantic CALLING STATION.
I think that I'm putting in too much money on average post flop. Alvin explains in the video that people generally have a value heavy range when they bet so we should generally be folding to bets more often than we probably should in an optimal game. My poker understanding has reached a level where I feel that I have to prevent myself from being exploited in all situations, but of course this is only necessary if we are being exploited in these situations. In the vast majority of cases, it's likely that I'm NOT being exploited, and therefore I should be folding more often. The key statistics where we differ are:
1/ Showdown : Alvin - 22%, Me - 27.5%.
Solution : Fold MORE
2/ C-bet % : Alvin - 60%, Me - 70%.
Solution : C-bet in the most obvious spots only
3/ Fold to Flop C-bet % : Alvin - 55%, Me - 40%
Solution : Bluff catch a little less on the flop, especially against more aggressive players. Let these players bluff off to you when your range is strong.
Basically, over the next few weeks I'm going to doing a lot of work like this to return my game to winning ways. I'll probably find it hard to kick some of the habits I've picked up but to reach the next level it's work that needs to be done.GL
EDIT: This game is fucking ridiculous. I'm now ten buy-ins under EV for the latest 100k hands and that takes my grand total up to around 25 for the last 200k. Enough to drive someone insane, it really is. $600 bucks that should be mine lost to the variance curve. I'm due, poker owes me. Back to Volume, my only friend. Maybe things will turn around for the next 100k? Or maybe poker is rigged after all. On the previous subject I was much better this session I think. I made one suspect call but looking on pokerstove it wasn't a huge mistake.
Tuesday, 24 May 2011
Struggling.
Another horrible session, where I lost a large pot to a one - outer; four-bet against a fish with KK and after he called, I check called the psb on Axx and he's binked the ace (check folding too weak there??).
I've noticed a trend in my play - since this bad stretch began I have been slowly going to showdown a little more and more (nearly 28% of the time now). I think the problem is that I'm attempting to bluff catch too often. Sometimes I'm right, but more often than not I'm wrong. This in itself isn't a mathematical mistake since we need to be right on average around 30% of the time or more to make calling correct - but I think I'm actually catching a bluff on the river a lot less than 30% of the time. I think I'm beginning to understand why. Well, at these stakes I think that villains don't value bet or bluff thinly enough which leads to them having a stronger than average range when they river bet. I also think that I'm often forgetting that many of the ranges I'm facing literally do not have enough junk in them by the river for them to be bluffing with! Optimal play would require them to be turning hands into bluffs that players at this limit just never do. They'll check back their third pair; they'll check back king high on double paired boards; they'll never fire a third barrel when their flush draw missed. I believe that this bluff catching leak is singularly the biggest drain on my win rate currently. I think that ideally I would be seeing showdown around 25% of the time. In order to begin to get down to that number I'm going to have to begin to play more weakly. I have already begun to c-bet less often. I only need to think twice before calling river bets now and I will hopefully see an improvement.
I'm nearly at 100k hands in my latest database and I'm more or less break - even (a small winner through rake back). I'll start a new one when I get there and really try and focus on this leak for the next 100k hands or so, I really wouldn't care if I started going to showdown as little as 20% of the time. Wish me luck!
I've noticed a trend in my play - since this bad stretch began I have been slowly going to showdown a little more and more (nearly 28% of the time now). I think the problem is that I'm attempting to bluff catch too often. Sometimes I'm right, but more often than not I'm wrong. This in itself isn't a mathematical mistake since we need to be right on average around 30% of the time or more to make calling correct - but I think I'm actually catching a bluff on the river a lot less than 30% of the time. I think I'm beginning to understand why. Well, at these stakes I think that villains don't value bet or bluff thinly enough which leads to them having a stronger than average range when they river bet. I also think that I'm often forgetting that many of the ranges I'm facing literally do not have enough junk in them by the river for them to be bluffing with! Optimal play would require them to be turning hands into bluffs that players at this limit just never do. They'll check back their third pair; they'll check back king high on double paired boards; they'll never fire a third barrel when their flush draw missed. I believe that this bluff catching leak is singularly the biggest drain on my win rate currently. I think that ideally I would be seeing showdown around 25% of the time. In order to begin to get down to that number I'm going to have to begin to play more weakly. I have already begun to c-bet less often. I only need to think twice before calling river bets now and I will hopefully see an improvement.
I'm nearly at 100k hands in my latest database and I'm more or less break - even (a small winner through rake back). I'll start a new one when I get there and really try and focus on this leak for the next 100k hands or so, I really wouldn't care if I started going to showdown as little as 20% of the time. Wish me luck!
Sunday, 22 May 2011
The Most Beautiful Song Ever Written?
God Only Knows
I guess I never really post things about my life and tastes etc. Maybe I should start, talking exclusively about poker is pretty boring I suppose.
To the link, I saw Brian Wilson perform this at Glastonbury a few years back. It took my breath away then and still does to this day. Has there ever been a more beautiful song written? Brings me to tears every time.
----------------
To poker, I played a good long session today and created a protected button raising range that worked out at around 48% of hands. By protected I mean that it's not easily exploitable. A player's range is easily exploitable if an opponent can make a positive expected value (or profitable) bluff with any hand e.g. When someone opens 50% of buttons and folds 90% of the time he is 3-bet.
So I now have a protected range for every position. Of course I don't always use the four bet or call ranges, they're just there as a default play against an unknown player or someone who foolishly thinks they can get away with 3-betting me tons. Against someone who is only value 3-betting a tight range, they are already folding enough that I do not need to protect.
The one last range to sort out is my big blind defence range versus a small blind open. This one will be a little more difficult because most of the hands that I use as bluffs for my other preflop ranges will now be good enough to call a loose sb steal. So I'll need to work out a seperate call, 3-bet, felt strategy for this unique situation. However to start with I'll just try and memorise the stuff I've done so far. When it's all remembered then I'll sort something out. Until then, I'm still making it up and still likely easily exploitable in that spot. Come and find me! :) GL
I guess I never really post things about my life and tastes etc. Maybe I should start, talking exclusively about poker is pretty boring I suppose.
To the link, I saw Brian Wilson perform this at Glastonbury a few years back. It took my breath away then and still does to this day. Has there ever been a more beautiful song written? Brings me to tears every time.
----------------
To poker, I played a good long session today and created a protected button raising range that worked out at around 48% of hands. By protected I mean that it's not easily exploitable. A player's range is easily exploitable if an opponent can make a positive expected value (or profitable) bluff with any hand e.g. When someone opens 50% of buttons and folds 90% of the time he is 3-bet.
So I now have a protected range for every position. Of course I don't always use the four bet or call ranges, they're just there as a default play against an unknown player or someone who foolishly thinks they can get away with 3-betting me tons. Against someone who is only value 3-betting a tight range, they are already folding enough that I do not need to protect.
The one last range to sort out is my big blind defence range versus a small blind open. This one will be a little more difficult because most of the hands that I use as bluffs for my other preflop ranges will now be good enough to call a loose sb steal. So I'll need to work out a seperate call, 3-bet, felt strategy for this unique situation. However to start with I'll just try and memorise the stuff I've done so far. When it's all remembered then I'll sort something out. Until then, I'm still making it up and still likely easily exploitable in that spot. Come and find me! :) GL
Re-evaluating my Game
For a significant while and over an increasingly significant sample of hands I have only made money through rake-back. I may have run under EV but it's looking increasingly likely that I have a close to break even strategy in these games. I think it's very important that I realise this and accept it, because otherwise I get quickly frustrated if a session does not go my way. I'm fortunate in that I don't become a crazy spew monkey when I tilt, but my game does deteriorate somewhat.
OK, so I'm a break even player. What steps can I now take to bring in an extra buy-in or two per thousand hands and become a winner again?
1/ Continue to actively challenge my strategy and look to fix leaks where possible.
* I believe my blind play has improved lately now that I'm being very careful with what I'm doing, but there have been several large pots where I've got most of the money in as favourite but not ended up winning. I'll review my blinds again after a couple hundred thousand hands to see if my win rate there has improved.
* I'm happy with the ranges I play from each position but there are two shady areas where I can work out a better playing strategy
- the button: This is where I still kind of make it up as I go along. I don't like this approach because it leads to inconsistencies and leaks of it's own. I think it's better to use fixed preflop ranges where possible as a default strategy and then deviate if you spot a clear leak in a villain's play.
- the big blind versus a small blind steal: This is another spot where I make it up as I go along. I think that I currently call too much where I should be 3-betting more often. Theoretically I think that we should be playing around 2/3 of hands versus the small blind (unless they have a very small playing range, maybe less than 10%).
2/ Analyse my post flop decisions critically. I do this sometimes for these blog posts but it's not something that I do after every session. I think I should be looking at every big pot that I play and find out what I did right/wrong. The more that I do this the better my decision making will get during play.
A hand that I butchered earlier (bye bye decent bb stats for the session, sigh.)
http://www.holdemmanager.net
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer Game#30634649332
evgeniy1741 ($9.55)
Hero ($27.80)
Hoppel1980 ($26.30)
survan ($35.93)
CarminNegra ($74.04)
mclaud85 ($40.16)
Stannerz ($35.16)
The Mentalist 7 ($16.62)
affs80 ($32.23)
evgeniy1741 posts (SB) $0.10
Hero posts (BB) $0.25
Dealt to Hero Ac As
fold, fold,
CarminNegra raises to $0.90
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold,
Hero raises to $3
CarminNegra calls $2.10
FLOP ($6.10) 9h Qs 8s
Hero bets $3.75
CarminNegra calls $3.75
TURN ($13.60) 9h Qs 8s Jc
Hero bets $6.75
CarminNegra calls $6.75
RIVER ($27.10) 9h Qs 8s Jc Qh
Hero checks
CarminNegra bets $10
Hero calls $10
Hero shows Ac As
(Pre 88%, Flop 80.1%, Turn 79.5%)
CarminNegra shows Qc Ks
(Pre 12%, Flop 19.9%, Turn 20.5%)
CarminNegra wins $44.75
Ok so it was another example of doing everything right for most of the hand but I'm almost certain I should have folded on the river. Villain was a total fish, playing a huge range of hands from each position. The flop bet is standard (perhaps I should have over-bet/felted since so many turn cards are horrible for me?). On the turn I was going to bet fold. When he calls again I'm sure he has a pair but the river card kills me completely. I should be check folding to that card now IMO. I guess at the time I called due to the insane pot odds I was getting. I only needed to catch a bluff more than a quarter of the time but that's probably a bit thin given the four straight board. So I played it pretty well until villain sucked out, sigh. GL
OK, so I'm a break even player. What steps can I now take to bring in an extra buy-in or two per thousand hands and become a winner again?
1/ Continue to actively challenge my strategy and look to fix leaks where possible.
* I believe my blind play has improved lately now that I'm being very careful with what I'm doing, but there have been several large pots where I've got most of the money in as favourite but not ended up winning. I'll review my blinds again after a couple hundred thousand hands to see if my win rate there has improved.
* I'm happy with the ranges I play from each position but there are two shady areas where I can work out a better playing strategy
- the button: This is where I still kind of make it up as I go along. I don't like this approach because it leads to inconsistencies and leaks of it's own. I think it's better to use fixed preflop ranges where possible as a default strategy and then deviate if you spot a clear leak in a villain's play.
- the big blind versus a small blind steal: This is another spot where I make it up as I go along. I think that I currently call too much where I should be 3-betting more often. Theoretically I think that we should be playing around 2/3 of hands versus the small blind (unless they have a very small playing range, maybe less than 10%).
2/ Analyse my post flop decisions critically. I do this sometimes for these blog posts but it's not something that I do after every session. I think I should be looking at every big pot that I play and find out what I did right/wrong. The more that I do this the better my decision making will get during play.
A hand that I butchered earlier (bye bye decent bb stats for the session, sigh.)
http://www.holdemmanager.net
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer Game#30634649332
evgeniy1741 ($9.55)
Hero ($27.80)
Hoppel1980 ($26.30)
survan ($35.93)
CarminNegra ($74.04)
mclaud85 ($40.16)
Stannerz ($35.16)
The Mentalist 7 ($16.62)
affs80 ($32.23)
evgeniy1741 posts (SB) $0.10
Hero posts (BB) $0.25
Dealt to Hero Ac As
fold, fold,
CarminNegra raises to $0.90
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold,
Hero raises to $3
CarminNegra calls $2.10
FLOP ($6.10) 9h Qs 8s
Hero bets $3.75
CarminNegra calls $3.75
TURN ($13.60) 9h Qs 8s Jc
Hero bets $6.75
CarminNegra calls $6.75
RIVER ($27.10) 9h Qs 8s Jc Qh
Hero checks
CarminNegra bets $10
Hero calls $10
Hero shows Ac As
(Pre 88%, Flop 80.1%, Turn 79.5%)
CarminNegra shows Qc Ks
(Pre 12%, Flop 19.9%, Turn 20.5%)
CarminNegra wins $44.75
Ok so it was another example of doing everything right for most of the hand but I'm almost certain I should have folded on the river. Villain was a total fish, playing a huge range of hands from each position. The flop bet is standard (perhaps I should have over-bet/felted since so many turn cards are horrible for me?). On the turn I was going to bet fold. When he calls again I'm sure he has a pair but the river card kills me completely. I should be check folding to that card now IMO. I guess at the time I called due to the insane pot odds I was getting. I only needed to catch a bluff more than a quarter of the time but that's probably a bit thin given the four straight board. So I played it pretty well until villain sucked out, sigh. GL
Saturday, 21 May 2011
Crazy Session and Crazy Life
Had a pretty crazy session yesterday, chips flying about everywhere; I intend to do a hand history diary post at some point with some analysis. Firstly because I played tons of hands terribly and secondly because it will demonstrate the crazy up/down nature of NLHE. I tilted a little after running under EV some more - totally irrational but I don't think I let it affect too many of my decisions thankfully. I won a few buy-ins too which has dampened the damage some what. Which leads me on to my conclusion - the Rush games are very much weaker since Black Friday. I'm going to have to continue to adjust to maximise my win rate in these games. Hint: VALUE TOWN.
The fiancée was rushed to accident and emergency last night with abdominal pain. Nothing to worry about according to the Docs but she is still there now. Friday night A&E - I don't recommend it as a choice of spending an evening's time. Crazy, I have so much respect for people in that job. Don't know how they cope with it tbh, they are better people than me for sure. Naturally poker will be on the sidelines until life returns to normal.
The fiancée was rushed to accident and emergency last night with abdominal pain. Nothing to worry about according to the Docs but she is still there now. Friday night A&E - I don't recommend it as a choice of spending an evening's time. Crazy, I have so much respect for people in that job. Don't know how they cope with it tbh, they are better people than me for sure. Naturally poker will be on the sidelines until life returns to normal.
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