Long Sessions

Just finished a 4k hand session and it went so so. I want to start putting in much more volume - at least 4k hands on days off and as much as I can on my busy week nights. I've nearly internalised the new strategy and it seems to be pretty much what I want: 14.5% hands played / 12.0% hands raised. In fact most of my stats look reasonable. 3-betting % seems a little low at 2.5% but this is using a very thoroughly calculated and balanced strategy from each position so I'm guessing that the good players have a more bluff heavy 3-betting range than I do - to exploit weak openers I guess. I'll keep an eye on this. I think that I'm going to showdown a little too often at 27% - I'd rather have this somewhere around 25% but it's coming down so I can def see improvement there. The unfortunate thing for me is that since adopting the new strategy I've only won at showdown 44% of the time which is very low and entirely down to bad variance. However, going through my stats I can't find any major leaks so I'm certain that this strategy will be profitable I just need to put in enough volume to get there. So this is what I intend to do! GL

Simon Screws Up (again)

Wow, so many posts at the moment. OK I'm going to share two hands now which I just butchered in the Rush games. They're relatively interesting and illustrate a quirk of my thought process during poker play. Sometimes it can be a real strength, and other times it can be a real weakness and I call it 'tunnel vision'. To start with I will generalise. Have you ever worked through a poker hand and, given all of the information that you have assimilated been surprised with what your opponent actually turns up with? The first hand I play is an example of this. I completely discount hands from ranges sometimes where it would be better to keep them in the back of my mind. Often my system allows me to win hands where villains do weird things that don't make sense, but other times I spew off money because earlier in the hand I'd refined their range to exclude the hand they seem to be representing. Seeing the hands will help this to make more sense:

Full Tilt Poker Game #30336206978: Table Apollo - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:32:52 ET - 2011/05/06
Seat 1: Gruux ($32.66)
Seat 2: Wiir ($106.07)
Seat 3: dvrf ($29.33)
Seat 4: cyan2k ($11.30)
Seat 5: linara ($8.51)
Seat 6: Hero ($32.54)
Seat 7: buckrogers1970 ($27.10)
Seat 8: janabu1 ($6.56)
Seat 9: Jess366 ($27.16)
Gruux posts the small blind of $0.10
Wiir posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qd Qc]
dvrf folds
cyan2k folds
linara folds
Hero raises to $0.75
buckrogers1970 folds
janabu1 folds
Jess366 folds
Gruux folds
Wiir calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [2s 2d 3s]
Wiir checks
Hero bets $1
Wiir raises to $2.75
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero has requested TIME
Hero raises to $6.50
Wiir calls $3.75
*** TURN *** [2s 2d 3s] [4s]
Wiir checks
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero bets $6.75
Wiir raises to $34.85
Hero calls $18.54, and is all in
Wiir shows [Js Ks]
Hero shows [Qd Qc]
Uncalled bet of $9.56 returned to Wiir
*** RIVER *** [2s 2d 3s 4s] [8d]
Wiir shows a flush, King high
Hero shows two pair, Queens and Twos
Wiir wins the pot ($62.18) with a flush, King high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $65.18 | Rake $3
Board: [2s 2d 3s 4s 8d]
Seat 1: Gruux (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Wiir (big blind) showed [Js Ks] and won ($62.18) with a flush, King high
Seat 3: dvrf didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: cyan2k didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: linara didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: Hero showed [Qd Qc] and lost with two pair, Queens and Twos
Seat 7: buckrogers1970 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: janabu1 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: Jess366 (button) didn't bet (folded)

So super tight (9/7) villain calls my middle position raise in the bb. At this point (given that he had hardly 3-bet over my sample (1.2%)) I assumed that AA-KK and possibly AK would not be in his post flop range here. So his hand was likely to be pocket pairs - or so I presumed at the time. When he check raises the flop I looked at his overall aggression which seemed very very high. His ratio of raising versus calling or folding was much higher than standard so I assumed that he would be misplaying many overpairs in this spot by raising them. I also assumed that he'd have trouble folding on such a dry board so 3-betting felt like the right play. When he calls I have discounted everything but middleish pairs. I naturally barrelled again versus this perceived range and BANG he shoves. I SNAP called thinking this was probably a play with a middle pair plus flush draw but I was actually drawing to only two outs. I was really genuinely gob smacked when he turned over his hand. My entire thinking through out the hand was flawed and I looked like a sucker. A BAD case of tunnel vision. As far as equity goes, if I put suited broadways into his range then I think that folding is definitely superior to calling on that turn even though it's only a pot sized bet left behind. Why I discounted something like AsQs or even AsKs I'll never really know!

Full Tilt Poker Game #30336577446: Table Apollo - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:50:49 ET - 2011/05/06
Seat 1: Hero ($29.23)
Seat 2: Kikomons ($26.56)
Seat 3: Menion87 ($10)
Seat 4: thonga ($10.82)
Seat 5: Artem15 ($87.21)
Seat 6: gwevolution ($25)
Seat 7: deGoochman ($31.91)
Seat 8: Dabovic ($46.82)
Seat 9: IronCross1 ($133.67)
Artem15 posts the small blind of $0.10
gwevolution posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Th Tc]
deGoochman raises to $0.50
Dabovic folds
IronCross1 calls $0.50
Hero calls $0.50
Kikomons folds
Menion87 folds
thonga folds
Artem15 folds
gwevolution folds
*** FLOP *** [4d Td 9h]
deGoochman bets $1.25
IronCross1 calls $1.25
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero raises to $4
deGoochman has 15 seconds left to act
deGoochman calls $2.75
IronCross1 folds
*** TURN *** [4d Td 9h] [8d]
deGoochman checks
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero bets $6.75
deGoochman has 15 seconds left to act
deGoochman raises to $16.25
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero has requested TIME
Hero raises to $24.73, and is all in
deGoochman calls $8.48
Hero shows [Th Tc]
deGoochman shows [Kd Ad]
*** RIVER *** [4d Td 9h 8d] [3h]
Hero shows three of a kind, Tens
deGoochman shows a flush, Ace high
deGoochman wins the pot ($57.56) with a flush, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $60.56 | Rake $3
Board: [4d Td 9h 8d 3h]
Seat 1: Hero showed [Th Tc] and lost with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 2: Kikomons didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: Menion87 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: thonga (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Artem15 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: gwevolution (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: deGoochman showed [Kd Ad] and won ($57.56) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 8: Dabovic didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: IronCross1 folded on the Flop

This hand was a similar sort of thing but I think that calling the turn is pretty close in this case. Again for my super tight opponent to c-bet into two players I ruled out everything but big pairs, worse sets and AK with the flush draw (so one single combo). With top set on this board against two villains I definitely need to raise for value. When he calls I can't really refine his range from before, it is probably {AdKd, 99, 44, KK+}. When he check raises the turn I thought that this could be KdKx or AdAx plus AdKd (sets almost always draw to the boat on flush boards). Whether this is a realistic assumption or not depends I guess on whether he ever calls the flop with AA or KK. The equity is simple, on the turn - again - I had a pot sized stack left after I bet so I needed 33% or better equity to call a shove. If villain only ever does this play with exactly AdKd then I should fold since my equity actually works out at around 23%. But with only a SINGLE extra combination of AA or KK with a diamond draw it's a snap call. Given the decision is so marginal and dependent on so few hand combinations I think that my turn call is forgiveable in this hand.

Anyway, I regularly suffer from tunnel vision and it's a bit of a leak to be honest. But it can also be a strength because I don't believe many people have so thorough a system of thinking as this during play. Have I begun to over-think my hands? Maybe. Anyway let's hope that I can learn a lesson from this and that my down swing doesn't continue for too long. In truth I'm really enjoying playing at the moment and don't really care if I win or lose. The calculation and analysis is giving me plenty of pleasure as it is. GL

EDIT: Just happened upon the poker room reviews over at pokerscout.com. There are some pretty foolish people out there really. "OMGZ pokerz is so rigggged" - lol.

Does it count if I don't showdown?!

Second Royal, like a light in the midst of a dark downswing. A Beautiful Thing. One day I'll not even blink when I get one I guess, after a couple of million hands more. But I now have two suits to get... and then I have to showdown each suit too. Mini mindless challenges to keep my grind on lol. GL

Taking one step backwards in order to take two steps forwards

So once again in the light of day after a poor session I have had a chance to do some critical thinking. I honestly think that my strategy has become a little poorer since undertaking the work to improve. I definitely had a poor session in terms of variance too but I contributed with some mistakes.

I'm still happy with my preflop play - my style is converging to around 14.5% Vp$ip and this suits me just fine. It's a little nitty but I know players who are making a very sound return using just such a style. I think that the mistakes are being made post flop.

The State of the Games
The Rush games are undoubtedly weaker since black Friday. In weaker games profit is more about value and less about bluffing in my opinion. As an example of a line I've taken a couple of times in the last couple of sessions: I flat a button raise in the bb. On the flop I hit second pair and knowing that button is stealing and continuation betting with a huge range I call the c-bet. On the turn I make a gut-shot straight draw to go with my pair, villain fires again and I check raise. IF villain is often firing the turn again - the sort of player who is liable to have a good % of bluffs in his turn barrelling range - I think this play is fine. I have raised with a hand that's probably not good enough to call a second bet but has enough equity to bluff with. However at this limit when faced with a second barrel it's often a very value heavy range. In a spot without specific reads that a player fits the 'capable of second barrel bluffing' mould I think that check folding is a better line in terms of EV.

I think that starting to experiment with increased aggression (read increased bluffing) is going to lead me to make a greater number of mistakes than before. Given that poker is basically a battle of mistakes then I will have to accept that until I gain a great deal of knowledge about the correct sorts of board textures and hands that I should be bluffing with in certain spots then I am going to face a dip in win rate. So much so that I'll probably no longer be a winning player. The question is whether I should go back to being a (semi) tight passive player - a style that does work at micro stakes - or continue to grow and improve and accept that at first it will have a negative impact. And to the title of the post. I'm going to continue to try and improve my game so that eventually I'm a much better player. In the mean time I will not expect to do as well as before.

Firing multiple barrels
I've increased my turn barrel frequency to around 50%. I think eventually I'd like it to lie somewhere between 45% and 50% so it is possibly a little high. In terms of overall barrelling, the characteristic of these games is such that once a player has called the flop c-bet (the vast majority fold way too much to one) he has a good number of hands that want to see a showdown. Not always but most of the time. So c-betting again on the turn as a bluff is probably a pretty neutral option from what I've observed. It's probably a similar EV return to just checking. However firing the third bluff barrel on the river after being called twice is probably certainly a leak at this limit. This is where a couple of my plays yesterday fall in: Firing a third barrel needing roughly 40% folds in a spot where villain is probably only folding maybe 25% of their range.

General Strategy thoughts
Picking the right spots to bluff in is as important - if not more important - than picking the right sort of hand to do it with. My thought processes have centred around the second part in recent sessions. Spotting a hand that is not good enough to call with but has some equity to bluff with is only worth bluffing with if villain folds enough of the time. So in general terms in these games I think that in any situation where your opponents have a wide range (c-betting, button opening, 3-betting button raises etc) it is standard that you should often be bluffing back. However in those situations where villain's range converges on 'wants to showdown' I think that purely value betting is correct. This has been the style of play that I've had most success with: pretty much c-bet and if called value bet. If I progress through the limits then I fully suspect that more spots will become much better for bluffing as opponents start floating wider and barrelling more often themselves.

Conclusions and Leak Fixing
So although I have gone through some enlightenment lately about aspects of poker I had not quite understood before, it has encouraged me to do things that are not optimal for these games. Such as:
C-betting too often (including turn barrels)
Firing a second street as a bluff after a check raise is called
Firing again as a bluff after a four-bet is called
Going to showdown and bluff catching rivers too often
In order to return back to a profitable style I will need to tone down my aggression. I will still try things out - which will cost me money at first - but a little less often as I'm doing currently. Hopefully I will eventually reach my goal of great play but once again I have plenty of work left. GL

Link - Black Friday Opinion

U.S. Attorney's Office on Tilt

I'm still following the US developments with interest as it will certainly have a huge bearing on the future of the game. This link is a very well written commentary by a professional criminal defense group. Articles like this make me a believer that the right outcome for everyone will happen eventually.

EDIT:
Well, just when I thought it was safe to go outside SLAM. The all-in EV curse is back with a vengeance. Seriously man, I need some run good soon. I totally understand how long hundred + thousand hand break even stretches happen now. This session I ran 3 buy-ins under EV. Doesn't sound a lot, but that's nearly like 20 buy-ins this year now at this limit which is tons of money. Big sigh, oh well if I can somehow motivate myself to grind on I'll play again tomorrow. It didn't help that none of my aggression seemed to be working today. I made a couple of bad bluffs that cost nearly a buy-in between them. Well, these things happen in this game and I'll just have to play on and hope that somewhere along the line hands start holding up again. They must do, it's a statistical certainty. Just hopefully it happens this side of a mill hands. GL

So no update yet then...

To be fair to Full Tilt they stated 'early next week' but I'd still like to know how things stand. Nevertheless, even if it is play money I'm wagering with at the moment I'm really enjoying myself.

The new ranges are sinking in and after about 5k hands I'm running around 15/13 which is pretty ideal as far as I'm concerned. Hopefully these are realistic numbers. The ranges that I have created are easily remembered from each position and altogether pretty well balanced too. So preflop is nearly sorted (until the next time that I watch a high end poker theory video that rearranges my perception about the game).

The last session didn't go that well - I think I finished up losing money - but I just felt completely on my A game. It's a great feeling knowing for a fact that you're one of the best players currently in your game (of course I mean purely 25NL since the US players left the pool - I'm a decent but not good player IMO). I even managed an over-bet in one pot where it was clear that my opponent had a mediocre hand almost all of the time and I didn't think that a pot sized bet would be quite enough to make him fold with the right frequency. Anyway, hopefully I'm not being delusional about my ability lol. I think I should be up to 50k hands by the end of next week and then I'll be ready for some 50NL. Exciting times, let's just hope that I'm wagering real rather than virtual money. GL

average session, encouraging volume

Just played a pretty rough session, but didn't tilt so pleased with that. I've sorted out some ranges that I'm comfortable playing with from each position. Not sure what my overall strategy will converge to, if I'm playing any less than 14% of hands then I'll have to rethink a little because I don't want to become so tight that my play becomes obvious. I think that 14% vp$ip is a good minimum number. I'll let you know how it goes but with any luck I'll be able to stop mucking about with the preflop strategy from now on and just concentrate on post flop poker.

Been thinking about how I can encourage myself to play more volume. Not looking at results helps but I also think that I could put aside set times each week to put in a 'shift'. I was wondering whether setting myself a goal of hours to play might help. I'm sure that if I was to target 500 hours of poker in as short a time as I can then I would make a good deal of money by the end. It would also make an interesting blog subject. Ok so here's what I'll do. I'll play a few hours this week until such time as I've internalised the new preflop strategy and then set a challenge like this up. I'll post again in a few days then. GL